Next War Taiwan: Set Up Part 1

 Hello and welcome to an After Action Report (AAR) on my solo playthrough of Next War: Taiwan (NWT).

NWT is a 'hex and counter' wargame produced by GMT Games and designed by Mitchell Land and Gene Billingsley which aims to simulate at the tactical-operational level a hypothetical invasion of Taiwan (ROC) by China (PRC). NWT is part of the Next War Series, which has developed a reputation for attention to detail and faithful attempts to simulate most aspects of modern warfare along with a corresponding level of complexity that can make actually playing the game daunting (especially if using the Advanced Ruleset). Nevertheless, I managed to play two of the other entries in the series before using the Advanced Ruleset and loved it, including using it as part of a professional military education (PME) program. Those entries were Next War: Korea and Next War: India-Pakistan, which while these conflicts were much larger in scale, were somewhat lower in complexity due to the lack of significant naval presence in the scenario (India-Pakistan has none and in Korea, the US/ROK has the run of the ocean unless the PRC intervenes which it didn't in my case.) As such NWT is going to be a bit of a learning curve as I get used to the Naval rules. 

My reasons for conducting a solo playthrough of NWT and blogging the results are threefold. First, I enjoy these types of games recreationally and the challenge of developing courses of actions for both sides and what the results of the clash of ideas are. Moreover, I want to use this playthrough to gain a better understanding of this potential conflict. I intend to achieve this both from experience gained by playing the game but also by researching aspects of the conflict as I encounter them during the game so I can explain why I have made the choices I do in the blog and reflect on how they relate to the real world. Finally, I believe that the Next War series has major potential for use in military PME, so in this playthrough will be looking for ways in which I could use the system in support of future PME activities. Any comments are welcome that add to the above.

So without further adieu, I'll crack on with the start of the AAR....

Set-Up: Part 1

A. Choose A Surprise Level.

The first step of set-up in the Advanced Ruleset is selecting the level of surprise which the PRC's operation to capture Taiwan will have. The options are strategic surprise, tactical surprise or an extended build-up. When NWT was first published in 2014, conflict in the Taiwan straits was certainly possible, but to my belief was significantly less likely than it is today. Given this increased focus by the world on Taiwan, and the impacts of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, I've assessed that it would be far more difficult in 2022 for the PRC to achieve strategic surprise than it was eight years ago so that option didn't seem right. From there it was about choosing tactical surprise or extended buildup. I chose tactical surprise as I felt it better represented the way the PRC would attempt to initiate the conflict but also reflected the US and its allies in the region's increased willingness and posturing to support Taiwan. 

B. Determine Intervention Levels for the U.S. and Japan.

In the next step you are supposed to roll on a chart to determine the intervention levels (essentially how committed they are) for the U.S. and Japan. I opted not to use the die-roll mechanics and set both the U.S. and Japan at Intervention Level 3 (out of 4). At this level American and Japanese Naval and Air units are fully used by the Allied player. Importantly it also means that ground combat units from the USMC, 82nd Airborne Division and the 4/25th Brigade Combat Team (BCT) may be use in Taiwan itself. Getting an intervention level of 3 for both using the intended mechanic would be pretty unlikely, and this may tip the balance against China. However, I've justified this decision to myself on two grounds. First, the US and Japan's policy towards China has hardened considerably since the game's publishing has relationships have deteriorated. The U.S. 's rhetoric of strategic ambiguity has been maintained, but actions and words from the current administration seem meant to signal to China a strengthening resolve towards protecting Taiwan. Likewise, Japanese defence white papers have increasingly called out the threat posed by China and this threat has been a contributor to their part in reviving the Quad so it's not difficult to anticipate a higher intervention level for them. 

C. Choose Optional Rules

I chose the following Optional Rules to tailor the scenario to meet my aims.

1. F-22 Deployment. This optional rule allows F-22s to be fielded as operational squadrons which seems increasingly in keeping with USAF force posture.

2. U.S. Long Range Bombers. This optional rule means more U.S. long range bombers will be available by basing at Guam but will have a slower recovery cycle. The rules indicate that this is more realistic so I have gone with it. 

3. USMC/USN F-35s. In 2014 F-35s seemed a long way off but by 2021 USN and USMC F-35s were beginning their initial deployments. I've assessed that their numbers in the fleet will only grow from here on out so the rule to replace some F/A-18E/Fs and AV-8Bs seemed like an obvious one to implement. 

4. US F-22/F-35 Wild Weasels. Both aircraft reportedly have extensive EW capabilities that would seem to make them worthy of the Wild Weasel rules to allow them to conduct strikes against enemey air defence systems.

5. Refugees. This optional rule causes movement to be slowed along roads and highways in the opening turns of the game due to fleeing refugees. Given that this was observed in Ukraine then it seems reasonable to implement here. It is worth considering though that the Taiwanese don't really have any other country to flee to so the displacement will be largely internal. 

6. PRC Stealth Air Units. The J-20 and J-30 appear to have met their in-service dates in the last few years so it seems reasonable to expect that the PRC would put them to use in any conflict involving Taiwan. 

7. Commonwealth Involvement. This optional rule sees UK and Australian forces committed to the battle for Taiwan. Both nations are more vocal about their opposition to any Chinese expansionism than they were in 2014, with Australia's rhetoric hardening particularly in its 2020 Defence Strategic Update. Furthermore the signing of the AUKUS technology sharing agreement makes it far more likely that these two would support the US in the event of a conflict. 

All in all the optional rules I've selected again should make life harder for the PRC (+32 Non-Allied VPs) but I believe reflect the contemporary situation. It'll be interesting to see the impact on the game itself. There were a few optional rules that I rejected as unrealistic. The first was an optional rule which decreased US Army Units efficiency ratings due to an excessive focus on COIN. In 2014 I could have gotten on board with this but in 2022 I believe the situation has changed. The US Military seems to have slowly but surely reorientated towards large scale combat operations (LSCO) and it's my believe that the Russo-Ukraine war will serve to confirm this posture. The second was that I did not select the rule which would have allowed the PRC to base aircraft on its carriers as this capability still does not seem to be fully realised.